Natural disasters negatively impact regions and exacerbate socioeconomic vulnerabilities. While the direct impacts of natural disasters are well understood, the channels through which these shocks spread to non-affected regions, still represents an open research question. In this paper we propose modelling socioeconomic systems as spatially-explicit, multi-layer behavioral networks, where the interplay of supply-side production, and demand-side consumption decisions, can help us understand how climate shocks cascade. We apply this modelling framework to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of vulnerability following a negative food-production shock in one part of an agriculture-dependent economy. Simulation results show that vulnerability is cyclical, and its distribution critically depends on the network density and distance from the epicenter of the shock. We also introduce a new multi-layer measure, the Vulnerability Rank ( VRank ), which synthesizes various location-level risks into a single index. This framework can help design policies, aimed to better understand, effectively respond, and build resilience to natural disasters. This is particularly important for poorer regions, where response time is critical and financial resources are limited.
@article{Naqvi2021b,author={Naqvi, Asjad and Monasterolo, Irene},abbr={Sci Rep},bibtex_show={true},selected={true},doi={10.1038/s41598-021-99343-4},issn={2045-2322},journal={Scientific Reports},month=dec,number={1},pages={20146},title={{Assessing the cascading impacts of natural disasters in a multi-layer behavioral network framework}},url={https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-99343-4},html={https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-99343-4},volume={11},year={2021}}
JCP
Decoupling trends of emissions across EU regions and the role of environmental policies
The paper combines grid-level data of eight emission types –CO2, N20, CH4, NH3, NOX, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 – with sub-national economic data to create a 1995–2015 balanced panel for NUTS 2 regions in EU countries. Regions on average show decoupling of emissions from output but most of the emission reductions are achieved before the 2008 financial crisis. Post 2008, very weak decoupling and even coupling can be observed. Using OECD’s Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) Index as an intervention variable, an event study analysis shows that strong policies significantly reduce emissions, but there is considerable heterogeneity in the response by emission types and regional income levels.
@article{Naqvi2021a,title={Decoupling trends of emissions across EU regions and the role of environmental policies},journal={Journal of Cleaner Production},abbr={JCP},bibtex_show={true},selected={true},year={2021},issn={0959-6526},doi={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129130},url={https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652621033175},html={https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652621033175},author={Naqvi, Asjad},keywords={Decoupling, Emissions, European Union (EU), NUTS regions, Environmental policy stringency, Difference-in-difference, Event study}}
JFS
Climate sentiments, transition risk, and financial stability in a stock-flow consistent model
Dunz, Nepomuk,
Naqvi, Asjad,
and Monasterolo, Irene
A successful low-carbon transition requires the introduction of policies aimed at aligning investments to the climate and sustainability targets. In this regard, a global Carbon Tax (CT) and a revision of the microprudential banking framework via a Green Supporting Factor (GSF) have been advocated but two main knowledge gaps remain. First, the understanding of the conditions under which the CT or the GSF could contribute to the scaling-up of new green investments or, in contrast, could introduce new sources of risk for macroeconomic and financial stability, is poor. Second, we don’t know how banks’ climatesentiments, i.e. their anticipation of climate policies’ impact in lending conditions, could affect the outcomes of the policies and of the low-carbon transition. To fill these knowledge gaps we develop a Stock-Flow Consistent model of a high income country that embeds an adaptive forecasting function of banks’ climate sentiments. Then, we assess the impact of the CT and GSF on the greening of the economy and on the banking sector analyzing the risk transmission channels from the credit market to the economy via loans contracts, and the reinforcing feedbacks that could give rise to cascading effects. Our results suggest that the GSF contributes to scale up green investments only in the short-run but it also introduces potential trade-offs on bank’s financial stability. To foster the low-carbon transition while preventing unintended effects on Non-Performing Loans and households’ budget, the introduction of the CT should be complemented with redistribution welfare policies. Finally, if banks revise their credit supply conditions based on the firms’ carbon profile ahead of climate policy introduction, they can contribute to align investments to the low-carbon transition and improve financial stability of the banking sector.
@article{Dunz2021,abbr={JFS},title={Climate sentiments, transition risk, and financial stability in a stock-flow consistent model},journal={Journal of Financial Stability},bibtex_show={true},volume={54},pages={100872},year={2021},issn={1572-3089},selected={true},doi={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100872},url={https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308921000322},html={https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308921000322},author={Dunz, Nepomuk and Naqvi, Asjad and Monasterolo, Irene},keywords={Climate sentiments, Climate transition risk, Bank loans, Green supporting factor, Carbon tax, Low-carbon transition, Financial stability, Stock-Flow Consistent model}}
This Tracker presents data on daily COVID-19 cases at the sub-national level for 26 European countries from January 2020 till present. Country-level data sources are identified and processed to form a homogenized panel at the NUTS 3 or NUTS 2 level, the two lowest standardized administrative units in Europe. The strengths and weaknesses of each country dataset are discussed in detail. The raw data, spatial layers, the code, and the final homogenized files are provided in an online repository for replication. The data highlights the spatial distribution of cases both within and across countries that can be utilized for a disaggregated analysis on the impacts of the pandemic. The Tracker is updated monthly to expand its coverage.
@article{Naqvi2021,abbr={Sci Data},selected={true},author={Naqvi, Asjad},doi={10.1038/s41597-021-00950-7},issn={2052-4463},journal={Nature Scientific Data},bibtex_show={true},month=dec,number={1},pages={181},title={COVID-19 European regional tracker},url={http://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00950-7},html={http://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00950-7},volume={8},year={2021}}
2020
OR Spectr
The risk and consequences of multiple breadbasket failures: An integrated copula and multilayer agent-based modeling approach
Naqvi, Asjad,
Gaupp, Franziska,
and Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan
Climate shocks to food systems have been thoroughly researched in terms of food security and supply chain management. However, sparse research exists on the dependent nature of climate shocks on food-producing breadbasket regions and their subsequent cascading impacts. In this paper, we propose that a copula approach, combined with a multilayer network and an agent-based model, can give important insights on how tail-dependent shocks can impact food systems. We show how such shocks can potentially cascade within a region through the behavioral interactions of various layers. Based on our suggested framework, we set up a model for India and show that risks due to drought events multiply if tail dependencies during extremes drought is explicitly taken into account. We further demonstrate that the risk is exacerbated if displacement also takes place. In order to quantify the spatial–temporal evolution of climate risks, we introduce a new measure of multilayer vulnerability that we term Vulnerability Rank or VRank . We find that with higher food production losses, the number of agents that are affected increases nonlinearly due to cascading effects in different network layers. These effects spread to the unaffected regions via large-scale displacement causing sudden changes in production, employment and consumption decisions. Thus, demand shifts also force supply-side adjustments of food networks in the months following the climate shock. We suggest that our framework can provide a more accurate picture of food security-related systemic risks caused by multiple breadbasket failures which, in turn, can better inform risk management and humanitarian aid strategies.
@article{Naqvi2020,abbr={OR Spectr},bibtex_show={true},author={Naqvi, Asjad and Gaupp, Franziska and Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan},doi={10.1007/s00291-020-00574-0},journal={OR Spectrum},month=sep,number={3},pages={727--754},title={The risk and consequences of multiple breadbasket failures: An integrated copula and multilayer agent-based modeling approach},url={http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00291-020-00574-0},html={http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00291-020-00574-0},volume={42},year={2020}}
2019
Sustainability
Reflecting Disaster Risk in Development Indicators
Disasters triggered by hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, droughts, and cyclones, pose significant impediments to sustainable development efforts in the most vulnerable and exposed countries. Mainstreaming disaster risk is hence seen as an important global agenda as reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015–2030. Yet, conventional development indicators remain largely negligent of the potential setbacks that may be posed by disaster risk. This article discusses the need to reflect disaster risk in development indicators and proposes a concept disaster risk-adjusted human development index (RHDI) as an example. Globally available national-level datasets of disaster risk to public and private assets (including health, educational facilities, and private housing) is combined with an estimate of expenditure on health, education, and capital formation to construct an RHDI. The RHDI is then analyzed across various regions and HDI groups, and contrasted with other HDI variants including inequality-adjusted HDI (IHDI) and the gender-specific female HDI (FHDI) to identify groups of countries where transformational disaster risk reduction (DRR) approaches may be necessary.
Sustainability
Bioeconomy Transitions through the Lens of Coupled Social-Ecological Systems: A Framework for Place-Based Responsibility in the Global Resource System
Bioeconomy strategies in high income societies focus at replacing finite, fossil resources by renewable, biological resources to reconcile macro-economic concerns with climate constraints. However, the current bioeconomy is associated with critical levels of environmental degradation. As a potential increase in biological resource use may further threaten the capacity of ecosystems to fulfill human needs, it remains unclear whether bioeconomy transitions in high income countries are sustainable. In order to fill a gap in bioeconomy sustainability assessments, we apply an ontological lens of coupled social-ecological systems to explore critical mechanisms in relation to bioeconomy activities in the global resource system. This contributes to a social-ecological systems (SES)-based understanding of sustainability from a high income country perspective: the capacity of humans to satisfy their needs with strategies that reduce current levels of pressures and impacts on ecosystems. Building on this notion of agency, we develop a framework prototype that captures the systemic relation between individual human needs and collective social outcomes on the one hand (micro-level) and social-ecological impacts in the global resource system on the other hand (macro-level). The BIO-SES framework emphasizes the role of responsible consumption (for physical health), responsible production (to reduce stressors on the environment), and the role of autonomy and self-organisation (to protect the reproduction capacity of social-ecological systems). In particular, the BIO-SES framework can support (1) individual and collective agency in high income country contexts to reduce global resource use and related ecosystem impacts with a bioeconomy strategy, (2) aligning social outcomes, monitoring efforts and governance structures with place-based efforts to achieve the SDGs, as well as (3), advancing the evidence base and social-ecological theory on responsible bioeconomy transitions in the limited biosphere.
@article{DeSchutter2019,abbr={Sustainability},bibtex_show={true},author={de Schutter, Liesbeth and Giljum, Stefan and H{\"{a}}yh{\"{a}}, Tiina and Bruckner, Martin and Naqvi, Asjad and Omann, Ines and Stagl, Sigrid},doi={10.3390/su11205705},issn={2071-1050},journal={Sustainability},month=oct,number={20},pages={5705},title={{Bioeconomy Transitions through the Lens of Coupled Social-Ecological Systems: A Framework for Place-Based Responsibility in the Global Resource System}},url={https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/20/5705},html={https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/20/5705},volume={11},year={2019}}
2018
EJ
Learning, Hygiene and Traditional Medicine
Bennett, Daniel,
Naqvi, Asjad,
and Schmidt, Wolf-Peter
Information provision, which is a common behavior-change strategy, is only effective if the information is credible. Infectious disease prevention messages that rely on the germ theory may fail to persuade people who are unfamiliar with microbes. A novel program in rural Pakistan augments conventional hygiene instruction by demonstrating with microscopes that microbes exist. Through a randomized evaluation, we show that this program leads to strong and lasting hygiene and health improvements for participants and their children, while instruction alone does not. Adherence to traditional medicine, which offers another, non-pathogenic disease model, may undermine learning by strengthening prior beliefs about hygiene. We show that hygiene and health improve less for believers in traditional medicine, while the intervention modestly weakens traditional beliefs. These results suggest that traditional and modern medical beliefs are substitutes in this situation and that traditional medicine may exacerbate the burden of infectious disease.
@article{Bennett2018,abbr={EJ},bibtex_show={true},author={Bennett, Daniel and Naqvi, Asjad and Schmidt, Wolf-Peter},doi={10.1111/ecoj.12549},html={https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12549},issn={00130133},journal={The Economic Journal},pages={1--30},title={{Learning, Hygiene and Traditional Medicine}},year={2018}}
Ecol Econ
Directed technological change in a post-Keynesian ecological macromodel
This paper presents a post-Keynesian ecological macroeconomic model, which is stock-flow consistent, and incorporates directed technological change. Private and public R&D spending across three competing, yet complementary inputs - Labor, Capital, and Resources - follow a portfolio allocation decision, where inputs with relatively higher growth in costs, see higher R&D investment and productivity gains. Two policy experiments are reported; a market-based Resource tax increase, and a centralized green policy, where public R&D budget is shifted towards Resource-saving technologies. We highlight that in the presence of labor market institutions, which give rise to hysteresis, and limited R&D budgets, a policy of continuous Resource tax growth is needed to induce Resource-saving technological change to achieve a greener economy. This needs to be coupled with planned government spending adjustment to spur demand and boost investment. The findings also suggest that a mix of market-based and centralized policies may be optimal.
@article{NaqviStockhammer2018,abbr={Ecol Econ},bibtex_show={true},author={Naqvi, Asjad and Stockhammer, Engelbert},doi={10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.07.008},html={https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800917311771},issn={09218009},journal={Ecological Economics},keywords={Directed technological change,Environmental policies,Post-Keynesian economics,Research and develo,Research and development,Stock-flow consistent model,directed technological change,post-keynesian economics,research and development},month=aug,number={16},pages={168--188},publisher={Elsevier},title={{Directed technological change in a post-Keynesian ecological macromodel}},volume={154},year={2018}}
2017
Ecol Econ
Fifty shades of green: Revisiting decoupling by economic sectors and air pollutants
Using a consistent dataset for eighteen EU countries, six economic sectors, and six pollution indicators, we ana-lyze decoupling of production–based emissions from GDP growth from 1995 to 2008. Computing decoupling fac-tors as defined by the OECD (2002), we find that in almost all sectors and by almost all pollutants the median EU country had at least some decoupling. However, considerable heterogeneity in its magnitude can be observed across countries, sectors, and pollutants. For most pollutants and sectors, median decoupling performance im-proved from 2001–2008 compared to 1995–2001, while between–country disparities increased simultaneously. In a second step, we investigate country–level changes in decoupling states between the two sub–periods based on Tapio (2005). We find high diversity across countries and over time. To explain these differences across coun-tries and sectors, we assess the impact of environmental policy stringency, and find tentative evidence that stricter policy encourages decoupling, however the effects are small and imprecise, differ by economic sector and pollutant, and take several years to materialize.
@article{Naqvi2017,abbr={Ecol Econ},bibtex_show={true},author={Naqvi, Asjad and Zwickl, Klara},doi={10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.09.017},journal={Ecological Economics},keywords={Decoupling indicators,Energy efficiency,Environmental policy stringency},month=mar,pages={111--126},publisher={Elsevier B.V.},title={{Fifty shades of green: Revisiting decoupling by economic sectors and air pollutants}},url={https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800916301574},html={https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800916301574},volume={133},year={2017}}
World Dev
Deep Impact: Geo-Simulations as a Policy Toolkit for Natural Disasters
Adverse post-natural disaster outcomes in low-income regions, like elevated internal migration levels and low consumption levels, are the result of market failures, poor mechanisms for stabilizing income, and missing insurance markets, which force the affected population to respond, and adapt to the shock they face. In a spatial environment, with multiple locations with independent but inter-connected markets, these transitions quickly become complex and highly non-linear due to the feedback loops between the micro individual-level decisions and the meso location-wise market decisions. To capture these continuously evolving micro-meso interactions, this paper presents a spatially explicit bottom-up agent-based model to analyze natural disaster-like shocks to low-income regions. The aim of the model is to temporally and spatially track how population distributions, income, and consumption levels evolve, in order to identify low-income workers that are "food insecure". The model is applied to the 2005 earthquake in northern Pakistan, which faced catastrophic losses and high levels of displacement in a short time span, and with market disruptions, resulted in high levels of food insecurity. The model is calibrated to pre-crisis trends, and shocked using distance-based output and labor loss functions to replicate the earthquake impact. Model results show, how various factors like existing income and saving levels, distance from the fault line, and connectivity to other locations, can give insights into the spatial and temporal emergence of vulnerabilities. The simulation framework presented here, leaps beyond existing modeling efforts, which usually deals with macro long-term loss estimates, and allows policy makers to come up with informed short-term policies in an environment where data is non-existent, policy response is time dependent, and resources are limited.
@article{Naqvi2017b,abbr={World Dev},bibtex_show={true},author={Naqvi, Asjad},doi={10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.015},html={https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X16302169},journal={World Development},keywords={Agent-based model,Earthquake,Food insecurity,Geography,Migration,Pakistan,agent-based model,earthquake,food insecurity,geography,migration,pakistan},pages={395--418},publisher={Elsevier Ltd},title={{Deep Impact: Geo-Simulations as a Policy Toolkit for Natural Disasters}},volume={99},year={2017}}
2015
Health Econ
Constraints on Compliance and the Impact of Health Information in Rural Pakistan
Bennett, Daniel,
Naqvi, Asjad,
and Schmidt, Wolf-Peter
Despite its centrality for the provision of health care, physician compensation remains understudied, and existing studies either fail to control for time trends, cover small samples from highly particular settings, or examine empirically negligible changes in reward levels. Using a four-year sample of 59 physicians and 1.1 million encounters, we study how physicians at a network of primary care clinics responded when their salaried compensation plan was replaced with a lower salary plus substantial piece rates for encounters and select procedures. Although patient characteristics remained unchanged, physicians increased encounters by 11 to 61%, both by increasing encounters per day and days worked at the network, and increased procedures to the maximum reimbursable level.
@article{Bennett2015,abbr={Health Econ},bibtex_show={true},author={Bennett, Daniel and Naqvi, Asjad and Schmidt, Wolf-Peter},doi={10.1002/hec.3193},isbn={1099-1050; 1057-9230},issn={10579230},journal={Health Economics},keywords={Diarrhea,Hygiene,Information,Pakistan,diarrhea,hygiene,information},number={9},pages={1065--1081},pmid={19816948},html={https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25980961/},publisher={John Wiley and Sons Ltd},title={{Constraints on Compliance and the Impact of Health Information in Rural Pakistan}},volume={24},year={2015}}
2014
JEIC
A multi-agent model of a low income economy: simulating the distributional effects of natural disasters
Naqvi, Asjad,
and Rehm, Miriam
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination
2014
This paper develops an agent-based model of a stylized low income region in order to study the impact of natural disasters on population displacement, income, prices, and consumption with a focus on distributions and coping strategies of low income groups. Key features of the model include the integration of decentralized markets into a full economy in a spatially explicit way and the analysis of short-run adjustment processes. The model is calibrated to a low income region of rural agrarian Pakistan that faced severe floods in 2010. Dynamic adaptation by agents in response to falling income includes migrating and running down savings. Despite these consumption smoothing strategies, some low income groups are vulnerable to starvation. The paper showcases two hypothetical policy scenarios, a cash and a food transfer program, and tracks their effects on the welfare of low income groups in the economy.
@article{NaqviRehm2014,abbr={JEIC},bibtex_show={true},author={Naqvi, Asjad and Rehm, Miriam},doi={10.1007/s11403-014-0137-1},journal={Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination},keywords={Agent-based model,Consumption smoothing,Distributions,Migration,Natural disasters,agent-based model,consumption smoothing,distributions,migration,natural disasters},number={2},html={https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11403-014-0137-1},pages={275--309},title={{A multi-agent model of a low income economy: simulating the distributional effects of natural disasters}},volume={9},year={2014}}